Giving Thanks for a New Aussie Government?
News Analysis of the Campaign Down Under
Jane Lloyd and Jamie Snashall, MPA/MC
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We take democracy seriously in Oz. Voting is compulsory, resulting in a voter turnout of 95 percent, compared to the 50 percent of Americans who voted in the 2004 presidential election. The election was called on October 14, leaving six weeks from start to !nish. We like our guys ready to treat every day like game day - not worn out in the off-season.
Australia has a parliamentary system - a House of Representatives and a Senate - affectionately known as the "Washminster" System. A term lasts three years, and the party with a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives forms the government.
Prime Minister John Howard has led the Liberal party (what Americans would call conservative) for more than 11 years. His opponent, Kevin Rudd, was chosen as the Labor leader just last year. Howard has vanquished three Labor leaders in his time, but former diplomat and senior civil servant Rudd is his toughest challenge yet.
Howard is running on his stewardship of the Australian economy, but Labor policies he inherited (as he admits) and a robust global economy are the true sources of Australian economic growth. Labor opponents criticize Howard's record on Australia's Aboriginal population, treatment of asylum seekers, sending Australian soldiers to Iraq and his opposition to a 1999 referendum on whether Australia should remain a constitutional monarchy or become a republic. That year, Howard made the Queen of England Australia's head of state for another generation. Not that there's anything wrong with that…although most Aussies agree that she barracks for the wrong team in soccer, rugby and cricket.
Kevin Rudd came to prominence via weekly appearances on the "Sunrise" TV program. A !scal conservative and committed but understated Christian (something not often discussed in the land of the sunburned soul), he hardly !ts the bill of a traditional Labor leader.
Two women !gure prominently in this campaign. One is Maxine McKew, the "intellectually sexy" former journalist who is running against John Howard in his "congressional district" of Bennelong. McKew's strong performance has forced Howard to campaign locally, distracting him from the national stage. Ironically, the Liberal Party could win the election while its leader loses his seat. The other is Kevin Rudd's deputy, Julia Gillard, will become Australia's !rst female Deputy Prime Minister if Labor wins.
Earlier this year, the government leaked reports to the media that Rudd made a drunken visit to a New York strip club in September 2003 while acting as an of!cial Australian observer at a UN meeting. The character attack back!red - instead, most Australians were pleased to discover a larrikin streak in Rudd, and his numbers jumped in the polls.
Liberals have made other mistakes. In the 2004 election, their economic mantra was "Keeping interest rates low." But with !ve rate rises since then, coupled with the unprecedented announcement during the campaign of a further hike, Howard can no longer claim a point of difference.
Labor has distinguished itself most markedly in the environmental arena. Australia is an old, dry continent. You don't need a Nobel Peace Prize winner to tell you that temperatures are rising and the summer is getting longer. Howard, a climate change skeptic, has not signed the Kyoto Protocol (joining the U.S.) and trots out the "jobs versus environment" line at every turn. Rudd, meanwhile, has pledged to sign the Protocol, is committed to carbon emissions targets and has developed signi!- cant policies around the issue of water resources.
Australians are ready for change. In spite of the strong economy, there is a deep-seated concern that when the Asian and global economies slow, the spoils that should have gone to improving the country's infrastructure will have been squandered. The government has run out of ideas and Australians want a new direction. For Labor to win, 16 seats need to change hands. Polling suggests a 57-43 split in Labor's favor, unchanged over six months.
So as Americans wake on November 24 from a two-day food coma, the polls will have just closed and Australia may well have a new government. If it does, the coalition of the willing in Iraq may just get one member smaller.
Jane Lloyd is fascinated with politics.
Jamie Snashall was political adviser and
press secretary to Deputy Opposition
Leader Julia Gillard for three years.
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